NEW POPULATION ESTIMATES:

INDIANA'S POPULATION INCREASING, BUT NOT AS QUICKLY AS IT HAS BEEN, SAYS IU EXPERT

EDITORS: A chart showing estimates for Indiana's 92 counties is available by calling 812-855-3911. For more information about the new estimates, call Joan Rainey of the IBRC at 812-855-5507, or go to the center's Web site. Population data pertaining to the state, its counties and cities are available at the IBRC Web site.

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. -- Indiana's population continues to grow, but at a slower rate than earlier in the decade, according to population estimates released by the U.S. Bureau of the Census on March 17. The state's population is estimated to have increased from 5.83 million on July 1, 1996, to 5.86 million on July 1, 1997, for an increase of 36,000 persons and an annual growth rate of 0.6 percent.

"The estimates suggest that population growth in the state is slowing down. Growth in the most recent year accounts for the smallest amount of annual growth since 1990, both in numbers of persons added and in annual growth rates," said Joan Rainey, director of research services of the Indiana Business Research Center at Indiana University's Kelley School of Business.

Overall, the state has grown by 320,000 persons since the most recent census in 1990, for a growth rate of 5.8 percent between April 1, 1990, and July 1, 1997. Despite slower growth than earlier in the decade, the state's population continues to increase much faster than in the previous decade.

During the 1980s, the state only grew by 54,000 persons for a growth rate of 1 percent. The recent growth since 1990 is already six times the growth experienced in the previous decade. Indiana experienced net out-migration in the 1980s, with more people moving out of Indiana than moving in. Indiana's slight growth in the 1980s was due to natural increase, more births than deaths, Rainey said.

"We are experiencing a reversal of previous migration trends, with larger numbers of people moving into the state," Rainey said. "This in-migration and natural increase are combining to account for larger amounts of growth as well as more rapid population growth than we saw in the '80s.

"Tax return data from the IRS provide evidence that more people are moving into Indiana than are moving out," she added. Of the net population increase of 36,000 persons between 1996 and 1997, about 30,000 were the result of more births than deaths, with the remaining 6,000 due to net in-migration.

Annual population growth for the state appears to have peaked between 1992 and 1993, when the Hoosier state's population increased by 52,000 persons, with 33,000 more births than deaths, and net in-migration of 19,000 persons.

Morton Marcus, director of the Indiana Business Research Center, noted that "the slowing in population growth is consistent with the slowing in the state's economic growth. The state's population and economy both continue to grow, but at a slower rate than earlier in the decade."

Indiana's growth rate of 5.8 percent between 1990 and 1997 is lower than the 7.6 percent growth rate for the nation. The Hoosier state has been the 28th fastest-growing state in the nation between 1990 and 1997. Indiana retains its position as the nation's 14th most populous state, but its share of the nation's population continues to decline from 2.56 percent in 1970, to 2.42 percent in 1980, 2.23 percent in 1990 and now 2.19 percent in 1997.

"The state's rate of growth of 5.8 percent compares favorably with the growth of neighboring states," said Rainey. The Midwest region grew by 4.7 percent during the same seven-year period. Indiana has grown faster than Michigan, which had a growth rate of 5.1 percent; Illinois, 4.1 percent; and Ohio, 3.1 percent. Indiana had a slightly lower rate than Kentucky, which grew by 6.0 percent.

Of Indiana's 92 counties, 49 grew faster than the state between 1990 and 1997, with growth rates exceeding 5.8 percent. Twenty-seven counties experienced population growth rates between 1 percent and 5.8 percent, 11 counties showed little population change (less than 1 percent), and five counties experienced population decline of more than 1 percent since the 1990 census.

The fastest-growing counties in Indiana since the 1990 census were primarily suburban counties. Hamilton County led the state in population increase, both in numbers (almost 46,000 more persons) and in growth rate (42.1 percent) between 1990 and 1997. Hamilton County's growth rate since the 1990 census was twice the growth rate of the second fastest-growing Hoosier county: Hendricks County.

In fact, Hamilton County was the fastest-growing county in the five-state region consisting of Indiana and neighboring states Illinois, Kentucky, Ohio and Michigan.

Other fast-growing Hooiser counties included Hendricks, with a growth rate of 21.9 percent; Johnson, 21.3 percent; Dearborn, 19.9 percent; Owen, 17.2 percent; Hancock, 16.6 percent; Morgan, 15.9 percent; and Jasper and Jennings, 15.0 percent.

Hamilton County also led the state in population growth in the most recent year with growth of over 7,000 persons or 4.8 percent between July 1, 1996, and July 1, 1997. Other counties experiencing growth exceeding 2 percent in the most recent year included Hendricks, Switzerland, Dearborn, Johnson, Morgan, Harrison, Miami, Hancock, Jennings and Carroll.

"Recent population growth in Miami County is notable, and in fact Miami County has been the state's eighth fastest-growing county between 1996 and 1997," said Rainey. Due to the restructuring of Grissom Air Force Base, Miami County lost almost 4,700 persons between 1991 and 1995. However, since 1995, redevelopment efforts in Miami County may have contributed to net population growth of about 800 persons, for a growth rate of 2.5 percent.

The estimates indicate that the population of Delaware County has declined by 2,000 persons since the 1990 census, for a loss rate of 1.7 percent. Other counties that experienced significant population decline included Grant County, which lost 1,350 persons for a decline of 1.8 percent; Vigo County, 1,167 persons and a decline of 1.1 percent; and Wabash County, 500 persons and 1.6 percent.

"In the most recent year, Marion County's population has actually declined by 1,200 persons," Rainey said. Marion County continues to experience out-migration, with more persons moving out of the county than moving into the county. However, in the first half of the 1990s, the county's natural increase (births exceeding deaths) resulted in a slight population growth for the state's most populous county. Between 1996 and 1997, Marion County's estimated net out-migration exceeded its natural increase, resulting in population loss.

The 10 largest Hoosier counties in terms of population were Marion, Lake, Allen, St. Joseph, Elkhart, Vanderburgh, Hamilton, Porter, Tippecanoe and Madison counties. The smallest Indiana counties were Ohio, Union, Warren, Switzerland and Benton counties -- each with a population under 10,000.

Rainey said it is important to note that these population figures are estimates, produced using a demographic model, and are not the result of a direct attempt to count population, as is done in a census year. This set of estimates was produced by the U.S. Bureau of the Census using the Tax Return Method.

The Indiana Business Research Center serves as the state's official liaison with the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Its present and future role will be to work with the state and its localities to provide a full and accurate census count in the year 2000.

(George Vlahakis, Office of Communications and Marketing, 812-855-0846 or 812-855-3911, gvlahaki@indiana.edu

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