NEW POPULATION ESTIMATES:

INDIANA'S POPULATION INCREASING, BUT NOT AS QUICKLY, SAYS IU EXPERT

EDITORS: A chart showing estimates for Indiana and all 50 states is available by calling 812-855-3911. For more information about the new estimates, call Joan Rainey of the IBRC at 812-855-5507, or go to the center's Web site.

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. -- New population estimates released by the U.S. Bureau of the Census indicate that Indiana's population is growing, but not as quickly as in recent years, says an Indiana University researcher.

Population estimates released by the Census Bureau on Dec. 31 show that Indiana's population increased from 5.83 million on July 1, 1996, to 5.86 million on July 1, 1997 -- an increase of 36,000 persons and an annual growth rate of 0.6 percent. Overall, the state is estimated to have grown by 320,000 persons since the most recent census count in 1990, which would be a growth rate of 5.8 percent between April 1, 1990 and July 1, 1997.

"The estimates suggest that population growth in the state may be slowing down," said Joan Rainey, research director of the Indiana Business Research Center in IU's Kelley School of Business. "Growth in the most recent year accounts for the smallest amount of annual growth since 1990, both in numbers of persons added and in annual growth rates."

Despite slower growth than earlier in the decade, the state's population continues to increase much faster than in the previous decade. During the 1980s, the state grew by only 54,000 persons or 1 percent. The state experienced net out-migration during the 1980s, with more people moving out of Indiana than moving in. Indiana's slight growth in that decade was attributed to natural increase, or a higher number of births than deaths.

"We are seeing a reversal of the previous migration trends, with larger numbers of people moving into the state. This in-migration and natural increase are combining to account for larger amounts of growth as well as more rapid population growth," Rainey said. "Tax return data from the IRS supports our thinking that more people are moving into Indiana than are moving out."

Of the net population increase of 36,000 persons estimated to have occurred between 1996 and 1997, close to 30,000 were the result of more births than deaths, with the remaining 6,000 due to net in-migration.

Indiana's growth rate of 5.8 percent between 1990 and 1997 is lower than the nation's 7.6 percent growth rate.

The Hoosier state was the 28th fastest-growing state in the nation between 1990 and 1997, and it retains its position as the nation's 14th most populous state. However, Indiana's share of the nation's population continues to decline, from 2.56 percent in 1970 to 2.42 percent in 1980, 2.23 percent in 1990, and 2.19 percent in 1997.

In terms of 1997 population, Indiana is closely followed by the state of Washington, which had an estimated population of 5.61 million. Between 1996 and 1997, Indiana ranked as the 29th fastest-growing state, with an annual growth rate of 0.6 percent. By contrast, Washington was the eighth fastest-growing state, with an annual growth rate of 1.6 percent. Assuming that these annual rates continue, Washington is projected to pass Indiana as the 14th largest state in the year 2002, Rainey said.

She said Indiana's rate of growth compares favorably with the growth of neighboring states. The Midwest region grew by 4.7 percent during the same seven-year period. Indiana has grown faster than Michigan, which had a growth rate of 5.1 percent; Illinois, with a rate of 4.1 percent; and Ohio, with 3.1 percent. Indiana was slightly outpaced by Kentucky, which had a growth rate of 6.0 percent.

The West continues to be the fastest-growing region in the nation, with a growth rate of 12.5 percent between 1990 and 1997. Nevada, which has grown by 40 percent during that period, is the fastest-growing state in the nation. Nevada has added 475,000 persons since 1990, moving it past Nebraska to become the nation's 37th most populous state. In the most recent year between July 1, 1996, and July 1, 1997, Nevada added 76,000 persons for an annual rate of growth of 4.7 percent, making it the fastest-growing state in the nation for 12 consecutive years.

Other fast-growing states, along with their growth rates between 1990 and 1997, are Arizona, 24.3 percent; Idaho, 20.2 percent; Utah, 19.5 percent; Colorado, 18.2 percent; Georgia, 15.6 percent; Washington, 15.3 percent; and Texas, 14.4 percent.

California and Texas added the largest numbers of persons since 1990, with population increases of almost 2.5 million persons in each state. Other states adding large numbers of people were Florida, Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina.

The District of Columbia has experienced a population decline of almost 78,000 persons since 1990 for a loss rate of 12.8 percent. Connecticut and Rhode Island also lost population between 1990 and 1997. Pennsylvania experienced the largest numerical population decline in the most recent year, between 1996 and 1997, with a population loss of 20,000 persons.

The Census Bureau estimated that the nation's population increased from 248.8 million in 1990 to 267.6 million in 1997. The 10 most populous states are California, with 32.3 million; Texas, 19.4 million; New York, 18.1 million; Florida, 14.7 million; Pennsylvania, 12.0 million; Illinois, 11.9 million; Ohio, 11.2 million; Michigan, 9.8 million; New Jersey, 8.1 million; and Georgia, 7.5 million.

Rainey said it is important to note that these population figures are estimates produced using a demographic model and are not the result of a direct attempt to count population, as is done in a census year. These estimates were produced by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, using the Tax Return Method.

The IBRC, in IU's Kelley School of Business, serves as the state's official liaison with the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Its present and future role will be to work with the state and its localities to provide a full and accurate census count in the year 2000. Population data pertaining to the state, its counties and its cities is available at the IBRC Web site.

(George Vlahakis, Office of Communications and Marketing, 812-855-0846 or 812-855-3911, gvlahaki@indiana.edu)

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