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George Vlahakis
IU Media Relations
gvlahaki@indiana.edu
812-855-0846

Last modified: Monday, October 20, 2003

IU's Business Outlook Panel to provide 2004 economic forecast

EDITORS: A schedule of the panel's appearances is attached. Media with questions about any of the presentations are advised to call George Vlahakis, IU Media Relations, at 812-855-0846 or gvlahaki@indiana.edu. Arrangements have been made for electronic media covering the Indianapolis presentation. At other panel appearances, media arrangements are being handled by the sponsoring organization.

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. -- During the last recession, Indiana lost a greater share of its employment than any other state. Many questions remain about the economic future of the state and the nation, particularly given the present international uncertainties. A panel of economists at Indiana University and its Kelley School of Business will offer their economic forecast for 2004 beginning Nov. 6.

IU's Business Outlook Panel again will tour the state, visiting 10 cities. The tour will begin with a presentation Nov. 6 at 7:30 a.m. at the Columbia Club, 121 Monument Circle in Indianapolis, followed by a similar presentation at noon in Bloomington. For more than 30 years, the panel has traveled the state offering insights and useful guidance to citizens, policy makers and business people.

R. Jeffery Green, co-director of the Indiana Center for Econometric Model Research and a professor of business economics and public policy, said he thinks most Hoosiers want to know how long the current economic recovery will last and how fast it will add jobs in the state. "Uncertainties always exist in any forecast. I don't think they are currently larger than average," he added.

"Manufacturing jobs are an issue, not manufacturing output. We will talk about consumer confidence," Green said. "International issues are always a source of uncertainty, but uncertainty about China, for example, is more important than uncertainty about Iraq or North Korea."

The panel will forecast economic conditions for the state and the nation in the coming year, and will discuss current state economic development issues. It will feature faculty members from the Kelley School and the IU Bloomington Department of Economics as well as local panelists from other universities in Indiana, with varying perspectives on the national and state economies. The panelists have a proven track record for their ability to predict national, state and local economic trends.

The starting point for the forecast is the Indiana Econometric Model, which combines state statistics and a national forecast to develop projections for the coming year. Regular panel presenters will be joined in most cities by an economist from that area who has prepared a forecast for the local economy.

In addition to Green, also appearing on the panel will be John Boquist, the Edward E. Edwards professor of finance; Jerry Conover, director of the Indiana Business Research Center; Larry Davidson, professor of business economics and public policy; Andreas Hauskrecht, assistant professor of business economics and public policy; Morton Marcus, former director of the IBRC; William Sartoris, professor of finance and director of the Investment Banking Academy; James Smith, senior lecturer in finance; Gilbert Viets, clinical associate professor of accounting and information systems; and Willard Witte, associate professor of economics.

Moderating many of the panel presentations will be Dan Dalton, dean of the Kelley School of Business, and Roger Schmenner, associate dean of the Kelley School-Indianapolis.

Joining the visiting panel for local presentations will be Gale Blalock, University of Evansville; Don Coffin, IU Northwest; Dagney Faulk, IU Southeast; Thomas L. Guthrie, Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne; Kathy Parkinson, IU Kokomo; Barry Ritchey, Anderson University; and Ashton Veramallay, IU East.

This year's tour is sponsored by the IU School of Business, the IU Alumni Association, IU campuses and local chambers of commerce.

To register for the Indianapolis presentation, contact the Kelley School of Business Alumni Programs Office at 812-855-6340 or go to its Web site at http://www.kelley.iu.edu/alumni/events/event.cfm?key=IN031106. The cost is $25 for IU Alumni Association members and $30 for everyone else. A table for 10 people can be reserved for $275. The registration deadline is Nov. 3.

For questions about other panel presentations, contact the sponsoring organization or the Indiana Business Research Center at 812-855-5507.

Business Outlook Panel tour schedule
(Local sponsors and their phone numbers are listed in parentheses)

Nov. 6 - Indianapolis: 7:30 a.m., Columbia Club Ballroom (IU Indianapolis Business Alumni Club, 812-855-6340); Bloomington: noon, Alumni Hall, Indiana Memorial Union (Greater Bloomington Chamber of Commerce, 812-336-6381)

Nov. 7 - Columbus: 7:30 a.m., Donner Center (Columbus Chamber of Commerce, 812-379-4457)

Nov. 11 - Richmond: 7:30 a.m., Forest Hills Country Club (IU East, 765-973-8221); Anderson: 11:30 a.m., Anderson Country Club (Anderson Chamber of Commerce, 765-642-0264)

Nov. 12 - Kokomo: 7:30 a.m., Kelley Center, IU Kokomo (IU Kokomo, 765-455-9231); Fort Wayne: noon, Memorial Coliseum (Fort Wayne Chamber of Commerce, 219-424-1435)

Nov. 14 - Schererville: 7:30 a.m. and noon, Teibles Restaurant (Purdue Cooperative Extension Service, 219-755-3240)

Nov. 18 - New Albany: 7:30 a.m., Hoosier Room, IU Southeast (IU Southeast, 812-941-2362); Evansville: 11:30 a.m., Executive Inn-Downtown (Evansville Chamber of Commerce, 812-858-3872)