Indiana University

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Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Last modified: Wednesday, October 17, 2012

IU Kelley School's Business Outlook Panel touring the state to provide economic forecast for 2013

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Oct. 17, 2012

EDITORS: A schedule of the Business Outlook Panel's appearances is below. Arrangements have been made for electronic media covering the Indianapolis presentation. Media who wish to cover other panel events should check with local sponsors.

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. -- A year ago, as economists at Indiana University and its Kelley School of Business put together their annual forecast, the outlook for 2012 was characterized by "lingering uncertainty" and "modest growth." This assessment proved correct, as the economy has crawled along over the past year while continuing to face major challenges.

In preparing their forecasts for 2013, the economists grapple with continuing concerns about the effects of domestic fiscal policy, the European debt crisis and slowing growth abroad. Moreover, the heated rhetoric of the current campaign season hasn't shed much light on the economy's prospects.

"The slow pace of recovery has kept many businesses and consumers from making major investments, putting a damper on economic growth," said Jerry Conover, director of the Indiana Business Research Center in the Kelley School. "While there have been some encouraging signs lately in consumer spending and in the housing and financial markets, a big question remains: What will Congress and the White House do to avoid the fate of Thelma and Louise driving over the fiscal cliff?"

In their 2013 forecast, Conover and other members of the Business Outlook Panel will assess how the changing economic environment will affect business and public policy decisions -- globally, nationally, statewide and in Indiana's major cities.

For nearly 40 years, the Kelley School of Business has presented its national, state and local forecasts through a series of presentations in cities throughout Indiana. Among the questions they plan to address this year are: How will the financial markets fare in the coming months? When will employment finally grow steadily and quickly enough to put the unemployed back to work? Will slower growth in developing nations limit our own growth? How strong will economic growth be in the coming year -- both for the state and the nation?

The Business Outlook Tour will begin with a presentation at 7:30 a.m. Nov. 1 in Indianapolis at the Columbia Club, 121 Monument Circle.

As in the past, this year's panel will feature faculty members from the Kelley School and IU, plus local panelists from other IU campuses and other universities, offering perspectives on the global, national and state economies and financial markets.

The starting point for the forecast is an econometric model of the United States, developed by IU's Center for Econometric Model Research, which employs hundreds of statistical equations to develop a national forecast for the coming year. A similar econometric model of Indiana provides a corresponding forecast for the state's economy, based on the national forecast and data specific to Indiana. The Business Outlook Panel then adjusts the forecasts to reflect additional insights it has on the economic situation.

Appearing at the Indianapolis presentation will be Conover; Kyle J. Anderson, clinical assistant professor of business economics; Robert Neal, associate professor of finance; and Willard Witte, associate professor emeritus of economics and co-director of the Center for Econometric Model Research. Idie Kesner, interim dean of the Kelley School, will moderate the discussion and public question-and-answer session to follow.

This year's tour is sponsored by IU's Kelley School of Business, the IU Alumni Association, IU campuses and various community organizations.

To register for the Indianapolis presentation, contact the Kelley School of Business Office of Development and Alumni Relations at 812-855-6340 or visit its website. The cost is $30 for IU Alumni Association members and $35 for everyone else. A table for 10 people can be reserved for $325, and half tables are available for $170. Advance registration is encouraged and should be done by Thursday, Oct. 25. Call 812-855-6340 after the deadline.

For questions about other panel presentations, contact the sponsoring local organization or the Indiana Business Research Center at 812-855-5507, or visit the IBRC website.

Business Outlook Panel tour schedule:
(Host organizations and contact information are listed in parentheses.)

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