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News Release

Last modified: Monday, September 29, 2008

Report: Indiana’s population to become increasingly more diverse by 2030

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Sept. 29, 2008

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. -- Indiana's population is expected to become increasingly diverse over the next 20 years, when the number of state residents with Latino or Hispanic roots will double and the number of African Americans will exhibit the largest numerical growth.

These findings appear in the new issue of InContext, a publication produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at Indiana University's Kelley School of Business.

The state's Asian population will grow by more than 50 percent between now and the year 2030. Those claiming two or more races will be Indiana's fastest growing group, increasing by 135 percent. By comparison, the state's white population will increase by 8 percent, but its share of the state's total population will decline, said Matt Kinghorn, the report's author and a demographer in the IBRC.

Despite these changes, Indiana will largely look the same from a national perspective.

"While it is true that Indiana's racial and ethnic composition will shift, the state is -- and will remain -- much less diverse than the nation," Kinghorn said. "A comparison of the Indiana projections to national projections produced by the U.S. Census Bureau reveals that Indiana's share of the total population that is white is projected to be a full 9 percentage points higher than the nation.

"Each of the other race and ethnic groups will hold a higher proportion nationally -- most notably the Hispanic population, which is expected to make up 23 percent of the U.S. population in 2030 compared to 8 percent in Indiana."

Here are some highlights from the InContext report:

• African Americans make up Indiana's largest non-white group and their number could exceed 700,000 by 2030 (there were an estimated 555,465 in 2005). Twenty percent of Indiana's total growth will occur in the black community. Porter County is projected to have the state's fastest growing black population, but Hamilton County will also experience a 181 percent increase. Counties with the largest numeric gains include Marion (63,200), Hamilton (13,700) and Allen (10,900).
• The Hispanic population is projected to add 284,600 residents by 2030 and will account for 38 percent of the state's growth. As a result, Hispanics' share of the total population will go from 4.5 percent to 8 percent. "This rapid growth projection is based on recent trends in Indiana of both high rates of in-migration and fertility rates that are well above other sub-populations covered in these projections," Kinghorn said.
• Indiana's white population will go above 6 million for the first time by 2030 -- it was an estimated 5.5 million in 2005. The share of Indiana residents who are white will drop from 88.5 to 85.6 percent over the next 20 years. The white population will grow most quickly in suburban counties around Indianapolis and in Elkhart and LaGrange counties.
• The number of Asian Americans in Indiana is projected to go from an estimated 81,802 in 2005 to 125,900 in 2030. Over this same period, the Asian population will account for 6 percent of the state's total growth. Its share of the total population will shift from 1.3 percent to 1.8 percent. Again, the strongest growth is expected to be in Hamilton County, where this group has nearly doubled in the first half of this decade and could have the state's largest Asian population in 22 years.
• Native Americans, called American Indians in government data, will grow in number by 14 percent but still account for only 0.3 percent of the state's population. "Despite the overall growth trend, the American Indian population is the only race or ethnic group among those discussed here that are expected to lose population within this projection period," Kinghorn wrote. "After peaking at 21,500 in 2025, this population is projected to begin a period of slight population loss . . . American Indian fertility rates in recent years have been well below the state average."
• The state's population with more than one race is expected to grow from 68,084 in 2005 to 159,800 in 2030 -- the largest increase of any race or ethnic group, 12 percent. "The primary reason for this growth is the extreme youth of this population," Kinghorn said. "According to the 2005 Census population estimates, 55 percent of Indiana's multiple race projection was below the age of 20, compared to 28 percent for the state on whole." The number of births to parents of different races increased each year between 2000 and 2005.

Also in the latest issue of INContext are articles on Indiana's leading export industries, population growth in cities and towns versus unincorporated areas and the Lafayette economy. It is available online at http://www.incontext.indiana.edu/.

Established in 1925, the IBRC is an information outreach service of the Kelley School. It provides and interprets economic, demographic and social information needed by business, government, educational and other nonprofit organizations, and individual data users in the state and throughout the nation. Its research can be found online at http://www.ibrc.indiana.edu/.

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