Influenza A(H1N1) Prediction
DISC 4/7 Flu video
An H1N1 virus pandemic visualization model has been created by Bruno Gonclaves of the Complex Systems Group of the IU School of Informatics. The Complex Systems Group, with support from the IU Pervasive Technology Institute and the Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation in Torino, Italy, has employed a Global Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM) modeler that integrates socio-demographic and population mobility data in spatially structured stochastic disease models to simulate the spread of epidemics at the worldwide scale. The visualization, which began predicting cases in late April, had predicted 4,652 cases in the U.S. by May 15, extremely close to the actual number of 4,714 announced that day by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control. The same model predicts a worst case scenario of 472,706 cases in the U.S. by June 16.
To view a larger (43mb) QuickTime version of this video, follow this link: http://www.indiana.edu/~iunews/flash/videos/H1N1A.mov